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News of the day
1. Open-weight models now process over 56% of tokens on Vercel's AI Gateway, yet Anthropic models capture 64% of the spending. → Read more
2. AI models tasked with making money failed, sending fraudulent invoices and generating no revenue. The experiment highlights misalignment and lack of business acumen. → Read more
3. Explore how AI assistants like Grok and Claude are shaped by human choices, imperfect methods, and power dynamics in their 'alignment'. → Read more
4. Europe seeks to regulate advanced AI development while boosting its own investments in data centers and AI infrastructure. → Read more
Our take
Hi Dotikers!
Yesterday we looked at OpenRouter's eye-popping token chart and asked whether raw volume actually means anything. Today, Vercel hands us the missing piece of the puzzle, and it's a good one: tokens and dollars are telling two completely different stories.
The numbers first. Open-weight models, most of them Chinese, now handle 56% of all tokens flowing through Vercel's AI Gateway. That share was a measly 7% in December. Guillermo Rauch, Vercel's CEO, thinks this is only the beginning, since enterprise adoption is still in its infancy. And he's probably right.
But here's the twist: those same open models capture just 14 cents of every dollar spent. Anthropic alone pockets 64 cents, a share that has never dipped below 61% in nine months. In other words, open models do the heavy lifting while Anthropic takes home the paycheck. Nice work if you can get it.
The most interesting signal in the report isn't about open versus closed, though. It's about loyalty. When Anthropic released Opus 5 at roughly half the price of Fable, customers migrated en masse within its lineup. When Google fumbled the Gemini 3 Flash transition, three-quarters of that volume walked straight out the door, and Google's token share collapsed from 30% to 5%. The lesson is brutal and healthy at the same time: nobody is loyal to a lab, only to a model's specific mix of capability and price. Break that contract and your users are gone before your press release is published.
So the real story of this market isn't the bubble question from yesterday. It's that AI has quietly become a commodity business with zero switching costs, where the only moat is shipping a better model than your own last one, every single time.
Alex.
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