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OpenAI's trillion-dollar future plan
ALSO : Nvidia DGX Spark: Local AI Power
Geoffrey NICHIL
October 15, 2025
News of the day
1. OpenAI aims to turn $13B revenue into $1T spending over 10 years by exploring government contracts, new tools, hardware, and becoming a computing supplier. → Read more
2. Nvidia's new DGX Spark, a compact $4,000 AI supercomputer, aims to let developers run large models locally, bypassing the cloud. Early reviews show mixed results for this researcher-focused device. → Read more
3. Japan's government has warned OpenAI about potential copyright violations with its new video model, Sora 2, following the online spread of AI-generated anime-style clips.→ Read more
4. OpenAI partners with Walmart to integrate direct purchasing into ChatGPT, allowing users to buy products via chat. This move aims to simplify shopping and boost OpenAI's revenue. → Read more
Our take
Hi Dotikers!
OpenAI has given itself five years to achieve the impossible: turning $13 billion in annual revenue into a machine capable of absorbing over $1 trillion in infrastructure spending. It’s a bold bet. Yes, the traction is real ; driven by $20 subscriptions that make up most of ChatGPT’s revenue ; despite a massive user base and a low conversion rate. But what’s coming isn’t just a product iteration; it’s an industrial project.
The five-year plan is clear: diversify beyond the chatbot, target public-sector contracts, launch video, agent, commerce, and even hardware services ; all while securing debt and partners to finance the effort. It’s the political economy of AI on a grand scale, where a private player tries to orchestrate the entire chain, from silicon to end-user applications.
Physically, OpenAI has already locked in more than 26 gigawatts of computing capacity through deals with Oracle, Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. The latest agreement ; with Broadcom ; signals a desire to co-design inference chips to loosen Nvidia’s grip and compress unit costs. At this scale, AI is no longer an app; it’s a power plant with a credit card.
Either OpenAI manages to drive down the cost per token dramatically and monetize recurring use cases beyond conversation, or the capital allocation bet will turn against it. Current gross margins look nothing like software margins, and the company remains unprofitable as long as inference and training continue to consume massive amounts of compute…
G.
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